"Iran escalates the war, but Israel has a lot of friends" by Brian Henry

October 2 – Update:

Wars move fast so some of what I wrote a few days ago seems already out of date. Yesterday, on Oct 1, Iran attacked Israel with 181 ballistic missiles. 

Thanks to Israel’s missile defences, thanks to the countrywide system of alerts and bomb shelters, thanks to the help of the U.S., Jordan, and other allies, Iran’s attack caused few casualties – one Palestinian killed in the West Bank and two Israelis lightly injured (here).

A simultaneous terror attack in Jaffa, though, killed six Israelis and wounded seven (more here).

It’s no coincidence that when I was out for my morning walk today, I saw a mobile police command post parked at the mall at the intersection of Bathurst and Sheppard.

With Iran again raising the stakes in its war against Israel, with the anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 atrocities coming up, and with the Jewish high holidays upon us, antisemitic harassment and even terror attacks are a possibility here in my Jewish neighbourhood, even here in Canada.

But let’s hope not – and in the meantime, Shanah Tovah – Happy New Year to everyone!

 September 28

The war between Israel and Iran has taken a dramatic turn for the better.

Hezbollah acts as Iran’s forward-stationed army, and Israel has taken out Hezbollah’s entire command structure. The death toll includes Hassan Nasrallah, the world’s most notorious terrorist.

Not only are Israelis relieved by his death, but many Lebanese are celebrating. What after all is Hezbollah? To many Lebanese, it’s the occupying army of Iran’s empire. Want a Lebanese perspective on Hezbollah? Read Fred Maroun’s blogs here.

In a recent posting, Fred wrote:

We all know that the reality is quite simple: Israel needs to protect its citizens and that requires ending Hezbollah attacks on Israel. As Israeli President Isaac Herzog said, “Israel does not seek war. But we have the right and the duty to defend our people.”

The war between Israel and Hezbollah is the purest form of self-defense. Hezbollah has absolutely no legitimate reason to attack Israel, and Israel has absolutely no aim in Lebanon other than to end Hezbollah attacks on Israel. (Full article here.)

Many Iranians are also celebrating Nasrallah’s death, particularly Iranian women.

Reading and writing about Israel, we may tend to forget that it’s not only Jews who Islamist extremists hate; they also hate women, particularly women who dare to be independent.

This hatred of women and Jews found its most brutal expression on October 7 when the Hamas terrorists committed, not only mass rape against Israeli women, but the most heinous and sickening sexual attacks and mutilations imaginable. (If you can stomach it, more here.)

But Iranian women suffer this extremist hatred every day. That hatred prompted the Iranian morality police to murder Mahsa Amini in 2022 for not wearing her hijab properly (here). It prompted Iran to pass even more severe clothing dictates after brutally putting down the protests that followed Amini’s death. And it continues to prompt Iran’s morality police to murder young women they see as uppity (here).

So of course, many Iranians are celebrating Nasrallah’s death and of course Iranians are our staunchest allies at every pro-Israel rally – they too suffer from this regime.

Graffiti in Tehran

Israel has also taken out all the senior commanders of the Radwan Force. This was Hezbollah’s elite unit, tasked with invading northern Israel. The plan was to capture towns and commit mass murder and kidnappings. Indeed, in its invasion of Israel on October 7, Hamas simply borrowed the strategy of mass atrocity that Hezbollah had been planning for years, but which has now been thwarted (here).  

Israel has also taken out much – possibly as much as half – of Hezbollah’s long-range precision missiles. Beyond, assisting in Iran’s long-range plan to make Israel unviable due to continual war, Hezbollah’s main purpose has been to deter Israel from attacking Iran, and those long-range precision missiles, able to strike anywhere in Israel, have been Hezbollah’s most threatening weapons.

Observers have noticed Hezbollah has been slow to respond to Israel’s recent ferocious counter-attacks.

In addition to the people depicted in this chart,
the strike that killed Nasrallah also eliminated 20 other Hezbollah leaders.

Since October 8, Hezbollah has been shooting as many as a hundred missiles a day at Israel, though almost always just at the north. But now with Israel hammering Hezbollah, why isn’t Hezbollah firing hundreds of its precision missiles deep into central Israel? Why isn’t it firing thousands of its shorter-range missiles at Safed and Haifa and other northern towns and cities?

Because once they’ve shot those missiles, they’re gone, and Iran has no more deterrence.

Meanwhile, though, while Iran and Hezbollah hesitate to respond all out, Israel continues to systematically blow up Hezbollah’s stores of weapons. Most recently, the IDF took out dozens of Hezbollah’s anti-ship missiles (here).

Rather than praying for death to America, the ayatollahs in Iran are doubtless praying that America will persuade Israel to go for a ceasefire, as that seems to be Iran’s only way out of the corner it’s boxed into.

The Americans do seem obsessed with restoring calm above all else. I find this especially odd as the ties among Iran and Russia continue to tighten. Iran has long been supplying drones for Russia to use to kill Ukrainians. In a recent escalation, Iran has also begun supplying Russia with ballistic missiles (here). For its part, Russia is reportedly helping Iran develop nuclear bombs (here).

Graffiti in Tehran urging Israel to bomb the residence of Iran's Supreme Leader

Also, a couple weeks ago, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched a satellite into orbit. The Revolutionary Guard’s mandate is to spread terror around the world. And a rocket that carries a satellite can also carry a nuclear warhead, meaning it’s not just Tel Aviv now in range of Iranian missiles, but also Washington. (More here.)

In truth, at this moment, calm is the enemy of peace. To enjoy peace, Israel needs to remove the terrorist threats on its northern and southern borders.

Hamas no longer has an army – excellent. Now Hezbollah has to be degraded enough that it can no longer deter Israel. Then, as soon as possible, for the sake of the whole world, Israel needs to deal with Iran itself – before Iran becomes a nuclear power.

In the meantime, I hope Israel has at least learned this lesson: you cannot deter attack from Hamas or Hezbollah, or from the Houthis in Yemen or from any other Iranian proxy without threatening Iran itself.

Does the Iranian regime care about dead Palestinians, dead Lebanese, or dead Yemenites? Not at all – they love them; the more dead, the better, as long as they can blame it on Israel.

To date, this war has been fought in Israel, in Gaza and Lebanon, and in Yemen and Syria, while Iran has barely been touched. To restore deterrence, Iran itself has to feel threatened.

Update: While the Americans have seemed obsessed with restoring calm above all else, now following Iran’s missile attack on Israel, the White House has declared they’ll help Israel strike back (here).

Iran is a nation of 70 million people. The regime is deeply unpopular, but it’s heavily armed and technologically advanced. American help will reduce the riskiness of taking on the ayatollahs. For Israel, this might be a once in a generation opportunity to dramatically change the Middle East and bring us all closer to a lasting peace.  

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This piece was originally published on the Canadian Zionist Forum.

Read more of my pieces here (and scroll down). ~Brian